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About: BREAD Fellows and Affiliates often submit Working Papers to be listed on the BREAD website. You can view BREAD Working Papers below.
Repository: BREAD Working Papers are hosted in a Github repository (linked here) to ensure files are accessible freely and publicly.
About: BREAD Fellows and Affiliates often submit Working Papers to be listed on the BREAD website. You can view BREAD Working Papers below.
Repository: BREAD Working Papers are hosted in a Github repository (linked here) to ensure files are accessible freely and publicly.
Instructions for submitters: If you are a BREAD Fellow or Affiliate looking to submit a working paper, please submit it to ibread@princeton.edu and include the following: (1) Title, (2) Abstract, (3) Authors, and (4) Live link / Pdf that you want included on the website. Submissions must include all four to be accepted.
Instructions for submitters: If you are a BREAD Fellow or Affiliate looking to submit a working paper, please submit it to ibread@princeton.edu and include the following: (1) Title, (2) Abstract, (3) Authors, and (4) Live link / Pdf that you want included on the website. Submissions must include all four to be accepted.
Date: Spring 2023
Date: Spring 2023
WP#: 619
WP#: 619
Abstract: Does combating corruption reduce clientelism? We examine the impact of a prominent anti-corruption program on clientelism using a novel representative survey of rural Brazilians. Randomized audits reduce politicians’ provision of campaign handouts, decrease citizens’ demands for private goods, and reduce requests fulfilled by politicians. With regards to mechanisms, audits undermine clientelist relationships by reducing citizens’ interactions with politicians and their knowledge of incumbents. Furthermore, audits significantly deteriorate citizens’ perceptions of politician reciprocity in a hypothetical trust game. Results also offer novel insights into audits’ dynamic effects: they have more pronounced effects in the short run, especially during electoral periods.
Abstract: Does combating corruption reduce clientelism? We examine the impact of a prominent anti-corruption program on clientelism using a novel representative survey of rural Brazilians. Randomized audits reduce politicians’ provision of campaign handouts, decrease citizens’ demands for private goods, and reduce requests fulfilled by politicians. With regards to mechanisms, audits undermine clientelist relationships by reducing citizens’ interactions with politicians and their knowledge of incumbents. Furthermore, audits significantly deteriorate citizens’ perceptions of politician reciprocity in a hypothetical trust game. Results also offer novel insights into audits’ dynamic effects: they have more pronounced effects in the short run, especially during electoral periods.
Date: Spring 2023
Date: Spring 2023
WP#: 618
WP#: 618
Abstract: Building state capacity is uniquely challenging in fragile states. We report results from a randomized evaluation of a major Afghan government initiative to increase capacity by modernizing its payroll. The reform, which required teachers to biometrically register and receive salary payments via mobile money, did little to reduce payments to non-existent “ghost” workers, but significantly reduced delays. The reform also improved educational outcomes and increased formal financial inclusion. The impacts were not immediate – highlighting the importance of long time-horizons – and were largest in urban areas. The results have implications for state-building and are potentially actionable for policymakers.
Abstract: Building state capacity is uniquely challenging in fragile states. We report results from a randomized evaluation of a major Afghan government initiative to increase capacity by modernizing its payroll. The reform, which required teachers to biometrically register and receive salary payments via mobile money, did little to reduce payments to non-existent “ghost” workers, but significantly reduced delays. The reform also improved educational outcomes and increased formal financial inclusion. The impacts were not immediate – highlighting the importance of long time-horizons – and were largest in urban areas. The results have implications for state-building and are potentially actionable for policymakers.
Date: Winter 2023
Date: Winter 2023
WP#: 617
WP#: 617
Abstract: There are now more violent conflicts globally than at any time in the past three decades, resulting in the largest forced displacement crisis ever recorded. Understanding at a granular level the well-being of refugees is essential to inform successful poverty alleviation strategies and unlock refugees’ potential. As forced displacement can lead to a reorganization of a family’s structure, we use a structural model in combination with data from refugee camps and surrounding communities in Uganda and Kenya to estimate the allocation of consumption within families. We compute poverty rates that account for intra-household inequality, finding that refugee children can be up to three times more likely to be poor than adults. So, refugee children not only suffer from the experience of forced migration, but also from potentially low nutrition and a disproportionately higher poverty risk. Using a supervised machine learning algorithm, we show that a small set of observable traits, such as a child’s age, household composition, and access to sanitation and clean water, predict child poverty in refugee settlements and surrounding communities remarkably well, often better than per-capita household expenditure.
Abstract: There are now more violent conflicts globally than at any time in the past three decades, resulting in the largest forced displacement crisis ever recorded. Understanding at a granular level the well-being of refugees is essential to inform successful poverty alleviation strategies and unlock refugees’ potential. As forced displacement can lead to a reorganization of a family’s structure, we use a structural model in combination with data from refugee camps and surrounding communities in Uganda and Kenya to estimate the allocation of consumption within families. We compute poverty rates that account for intra-household inequality, finding that refugee children can be up to three times more likely to be poor than adults. So, refugee children not only suffer from the experience of forced migration, but also from potentially low nutrition and a disproportionately higher poverty risk. Using a supervised machine learning algorithm, we show that a small set of observable traits, such as a child’s age, household composition, and access to sanitation and clean water, predict child poverty in refugee settlements and surrounding communities remarkably well, often better than per-capita household expenditure.
Date: Winter 2023
Date: Winter 2023
WP#: 616
WP#: 616
Abstract: Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. We evaluate a Colombian program for 200 firms which aimed to increase exporting. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation can not reject null effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For binary outcomes like whether firms export, frequentist estimates are relatively precise, and Bayesian credible posterior intervals update to overlap almost completely with standard confidence intervals. For outcomes like increasing export variety, where the priors align with the data, the value of these priors is seen in posterior intervals that are considerably narrower than frequentist confidence intervals. Finally, for noisy outcomes like export value, posterior intervals show almost no updating from the priors, highlighting how uninformative the data are about such outcomes.
Abstract: Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. We evaluate a Colombian program for 200 firms which aimed to increase exporting. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation can not reject null effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For binary outcomes like whether firms export, frequentist estimates are relatively precise, and Bayesian credible posterior intervals update to overlap almost completely with standard confidence intervals. For outcomes like increasing export variety, where the priors align with the data, the value of these priors is seen in posterior intervals that are considerably narrower than frequentist confidence intervals. Finally, for noisy outcomes like export value, posterior intervals show almost no updating from the priors, highlighting how uninformative the data are about such outcomes.
Date: Winter 2023
Date: Winter 2023
WP#: 615
WP#: 615
Abstract: Two centuries ago, in most countries around the world, women were unable to vote, had no say over their own children or property, and could not obtain a divorce. Women have gradually gained rights in many areas of life, and this legal expansion has been closely intertwined with economic development. We aim to understand the drivers behind these reforms. To this end, we distinguish between four types of women’s rights—economic, political, labor, and body—and document their evolution over the past 50 years across countries. We summarize the political-economy mechanisms that link economic development to changes in women’s rights and show empirically that these mechanisms account for a large share of the variation in women’s rights across countries and over time.
Abstract: Two centuries ago, in most countries around the world, women were unable to vote, had no say over their own children or property, and could not obtain a divorce. Women have gradually gained rights in many areas of life, and this legal expansion has been closely intertwined with economic development. We aim to understand the drivers behind these reforms. To this end, we distinguish between four types of women’s rights—economic, political, labor, and body—and document their evolution over the past 50 years across countries. We summarize the political-economy mechanisms that link economic development to changes in women’s rights and show empirically that these mechanisms account for a large share of the variation in women’s rights across countries and over time.
Date: Fall 2022
Date: Fall 2022
WP#: 614
WP#: 614
Abstract: Policies aimed at raising agricultural productivity have been a centerpiece in the fight against global poverty. Their impacts are often measured using field or quasi-experiments that provide strong causal identification, but may be too small-scale to capture the general equilibrium (GE) effects that emerge once the policy is scaled up to a broader segment of the population. We pro- pose a new approach for quantifying large-scale GE policy counterfactuals that can both complement and be informed by evidence from field and quasi-experiments in agricultural settings. We develop a quantitative model of farm production, consumption and trading that captures important features of this setting, and propose a new solution method that relies on rich but widely available microdata. We showcase our approach in the context of a subsidy for modern inputs in Uganda, using administrative data for model calibration and variation from field and quasi-experiments for parameter estimation. We find that both the average and distributional impacts of the subsidy differ meaningfully when comparing a local intervention to one at scale, even for the same sample of farmers, and quantify the underlying mechanisms. We further document new insights on how the sign and extent of GE forces differ as a function of saturation rates at different geographical scales, and on the importance of capturing a granular economic geography for counterfactual analysis. Finally, we discuss practical considerations for combining our toolkit with evidence from field and quasi-experiments.
Abstract: Policies aimed at raising agricultural productivity have been a centerpiece in the fight against global poverty. Their impacts are often measured using field or quasi-experiments that provide strong causal identification, but may be too small-scale to capture the general equilibrium (GE) effects that emerge once the policy is scaled up to a broader segment of the population. We pro- pose a new approach for quantifying large-scale GE policy counterfactuals that can both complement and be informed by evidence from field and quasi-experiments in agricultural settings. We develop a quantitative model of farm production, consumption and trading that captures important features of this setting, and propose a new solution method that relies on rich but widely available microdata. We showcase our approach in the context of a subsidy for modern inputs in Uganda, using administrative data for model calibration and variation from field and quasi-experiments for parameter estimation. We find that both the average and distributional impacts of the subsidy differ meaningfully when comparing a local intervention to one at scale, even for the same sample of farmers, and quantify the underlying mechanisms. We further document new insights on how the sign and extent of GE forces differ as a function of saturation rates at different geographical scales, and on the importance of capturing a granular economic geography for counterfactual analysis. Finally, we discuss practical considerations for combining our toolkit with evidence from field and quasi-experiments.
Date: Fall 2022
Date: Fall 2022
WP#: 613
WP#: 613
Abstract: We document the impact of imperfect competition in the sanitation market in Dakar Senegal, both in the traditional market and in an experimental, just-in-time auction system that we designed in collaboration with the government. The auction platform randomly assigns each job to a set of bidders and to an auction format, either sealed bid or revisable bid (much like a sequential auction with open followed by closed bidding). We identify different collusive strategies in the two auction formats, and show that there are many participants who choose those different strategies when bidding in auctions of different formats. We discuss and rule out explanations other than collusion for the sub-optimal strategies. Collusion leads to higher prices and lower take-up rates for improved sanitation services, with implications for health.
Abstract: We document the impact of imperfect competition in the sanitation market in Dakar Senegal, both in the traditional market and in an experimental, just-in-time auction system that we designed in collaboration with the government. The auction platform randomly assigns each job to a set of bidders and to an auction format, either sealed bid or revisable bid (much like a sequential auction with open followed by closed bidding). We identify different collusive strategies in the two auction formats, and show that there are many participants who choose those different strategies when bidding in auctions of different formats. We discuss and rule out explanations other than collusion for the sub-optimal strategies. Collusion leads to higher prices and lower take-up rates for improved sanitation services, with implications for health.
Date: Summer 2022
Date: Summer 2022
WP#: 612
WP#: 612
Authors: Johannes Haushofer, Sara Lowes, Nathan Nunn, Abednego Musau, Moritz Poll, David Ndetei, and Nancy Qian
Authors: Johannes Haushofer, Sara Lowes, Nathan Nunn, Abednego Musau, Moritz Poll, David Ndetei, and Nancy Qian
Abstract: While observational evidence suggests that people behave more prosocially towards members of their own ethnic group, many laboratory studies fail to find this effect. One possible explanation is that coethnic preference only emerges during times of stress. To test this hypothesis, we pharmacologically increase levels of the stress hormone cortisol, after which participants complete laboratory experiments with coethnics and noncoethnics. We find mixed evidence that increased cortisol decreases prosocial behavior. Coethnic preferences do not vary with cortisol. However, in contrast to previous studies, we find strong and robust evidence of coethnic preference.
Abstract: While observational evidence suggests that people behave more prosocially towards members of their own ethnic group, many laboratory studies fail to find this effect. One possible explanation is that coethnic preference only emerges during times of stress. To test this hypothesis, we pharmacologically increase levels of the stress hormone cortisol, after which participants complete laboratory experiments with coethnics and noncoethnics. We find mixed evidence that increased cortisol decreases prosocial behavior. Coethnic preferences do not vary with cortisol. However, in contrast to previous studies, we find strong and robust evidence of coethnic preference.
Date: Summer 2022
Date: Summer 2022
WP#: 611
WP#: 611
Abstract: We study the relationship between the spread of social media platforms and the communication and responsiveness of politicians towards voters, in the context of the expansion of Facebook in Brazil. We use self-collected data on the universe of Facebook activities by federal legislators and the variation in access induced by the spread of the 3G mobile phone network to establish three sets of findings: (i) Politicians use social media extensively to communicate with constituents, finely targeting localities while addressing policy-relevant topics; (ii) They increase their online engagement, especially with places where they have a large pre-existing vote share; but (iii) They shift their offline engagement (measured by speeches and earmarked transfers) away from connected municipalities within their base of support. Our results suggest that, rather than increasing responsiveness, social media may enable politicians to solidify their position with core supporters using communication strategies, while shifting resources away towards localities that lag in social media presence.
Abstract: We study the relationship between the spread of social media platforms and the communication and responsiveness of politicians towards voters, in the context of the expansion of Facebook in Brazil. We use self-collected data on the universe of Facebook activities by federal legislators and the variation in access induced by the spread of the 3G mobile phone network to establish three sets of findings: (i) Politicians use social media extensively to communicate with constituents, finely targeting localities while addressing policy-relevant topics; (ii) They increase their online engagement, especially with places where they have a large pre-existing vote share; but (iii) They shift their offline engagement (measured by speeches and earmarked transfers) away from connected municipalities within their base of support. Our results suggest that, rather than increasing responsiveness, social media may enable politicians to solidify their position with core supporters using communication strategies, while shifting resources away towards localities that lag in social media presence.
Date: Summer 2022
Date: Summer 2022
WP#: 610
WP#: 610
Authors: Dean Karlan, Matt Lowe, Robert Osei, Isaac Osei-Akoto, Benjamin N. Roth, and Christopher Udry
Authors: Dean Karlan, Matt Lowe, Robert Osei, Isaac Osei-Akoto, Benjamin N. Roth, and Christopher Udry
Abstract: We study the impact of mobile money transfers to a representative sample of low-income Ghanaians during the COVID-19 pandemic. The announcement of the upcoming transfers affects neither consumption, well-being, nor social distancing. Once disbursed, transfers increase food expenditure by 8%, income by 20%, and a social distancing index by 0.08 standard deviations. Over 40% of the transfers were spent on food. The positive effects on income mostly persist at final measurement, eight months after the last transfer. Together, we learn that cash transfers can support households economically while also promoting adherence to public health protocols during a pandemic.
Abstract: We study the impact of mobile money transfers to a representative sample of low-income Ghanaians during the COVID-19 pandemic. The announcement of the upcoming transfers affects neither consumption, well-being, nor social distancing. Once disbursed, transfers increase food expenditure by 8%, income by 20%, and a social distancing index by 0.08 standard deviations. Over 40% of the transfers were spent on food. The positive effects on income mostly persist at final measurement, eight months after the last transfer. Together, we learn that cash transfers can support households economically while also promoting adherence to public health protocols during a pandemic.
Date: Summer 2022
Date: Summer 2022
WP#: 609
WP#: 609
Abstract: What accounts for the ubiquity of small vendors operating side-by-side in the urban centers of developing countries? Why don’t competitive forces drive some vendors out of the market? We ran an experiment in Kolkata vegetable markets in which we induced (via subsidizing) some vendors to sell additional produce. The vendors earned higher profits, even when excluding the value of the subsidy. Nevertheless, after the subsidies ended vendors largely stopped selling the additional produce. Our results are consistent with collusion and inertial business practices suppressing competition and efficient market exit.
Abstract: What accounts for the ubiquity of small vendors operating side-by-side in the urban centers of developing countries? Why don’t competitive forces drive some vendors out of the market? We ran an experiment in Kolkata vegetable markets in which we induced (via subsidizing) some vendors to sell additional produce. The vendors earned higher profits, even when excluding the value of the subsidy. Nevertheless, after the subsidies ended vendors largely stopped selling the additional produce. Our results are consistent with collusion and inertial business practices suppressing competition and efficient market exit.
Date: Spring 2022
Date: Spring 2022
WP#: 608
WP#: 608
Abstract: We use data from a large sample of low and middle income countries to study the association (or “gradient”) between child height and maternal education. While the strong positive association between child health and measures of parental socio-economic status (SES) is well established, we uncover novel results regarding the evolution of this gradient as children age. The association is small at birth, rises throughout childhood and declines in adolescence as girls and boys approach puberty. This pattern is consistent with a degree of catch up in height among children of low SES families, in partial contrast to the argument that height deficits cannot be overcome after the early years of life. This catch up is partly explained by the association between SES and the timing of puberty and therefore of the adolescent growth spurt. By contrast, we do not find evidence in support of the role of behavioral responses in driving the inverted U-shape of the gradient.
Abstract: We use data from a large sample of low and middle income countries to study the association (or “gradient”) between child height and maternal education. While the strong positive association between child health and measures of parental socio-economic status (SES) is well established, we uncover novel results regarding the evolution of this gradient as children age. The association is small at birth, rises throughout childhood and declines in adolescence as girls and boys approach puberty. This pattern is consistent with a degree of catch up in height among children of low SES families, in partial contrast to the argument that height deficits cannot be overcome after the early years of life. This catch up is partly explained by the association between SES and the timing of puberty and therefore of the adolescent growth spurt. By contrast, we do not find evidence in support of the role of behavioral responses in driving the inverted U-shape of the gradient.
Date: Spring 2022
Date: Spring 2022
WP#: 607
WP#: 607
Abstract: We develop a framework to estimate the economic value of a recent zoning reform in Sao Paulo. Using a block-level regression discontinuity design, we find that developers request more permits in blocks with higher allowable densities. We incorporate these micro-estimates into an equilibrium model of housing supply and demand, finding that the reform produces a 1.9% increase in housing stock and a 0.5% reduction in prices, with substantial heterogeneity across neighborhoods. Welfare gains increase 4-fold once accounting for changes in built environment, and gains are larger for high-income and high-education families. However, homeowner house price losses overshadow all consumer gains.
Abstract: We develop a framework to estimate the economic value of a recent zoning reform in Sao Paulo. Using a block-level regression discontinuity design, we find that developers request more permits in blocks with higher allowable densities. We incorporate these micro-estimates into an equilibrium model of housing supply and demand, finding that the reform produces a 1.9% increase in housing stock and a 0.5% reduction in prices, with substantial heterogeneity across neighborhoods. Welfare gains increase 4-fold once accounting for changes in built environment, and gains are larger for high-income and high-education families. However, homeowner house price losses overshadow all consumer gains.
Date: Spring 2022
Date: Spring 2022
WP#: 606
WP#: 606
Abstract: I provide a theoretically-guided discussion of the dynamics of human behavior, focusing on the importance of culture (socially-learned information) and tradition (transmission of culture across generations). Decision-making that relies on tradition can be an effective strategy and arises in equilibrium. While dynamically optimal, it generates static ‘mismatch.’ When the world changes, since traits evolve slowly, they may not be beneficial in their new environment. I discuss how mismatch helps explain the world around us, presents special challenges and opportunities for policy, and provides important lessons for our future as a human species.
Abstract: I provide a theoretically-guided discussion of the dynamics of human behavior, focusing on the importance of culture (socially-learned information) and tradition (transmission of culture across generations). Decision-making that relies on tradition can be an effective strategy and arises in equilibrium. While dynamically optimal, it generates static ‘mismatch.’ When the world changes, since traits evolve slowly, they may not be beneficial in their new environment. I discuss how mismatch helps explain the world around us, presents special challenges and opportunities for policy, and provides important lessons for our future as a human species.
Date: Spring 2022
Date: Spring 2022
WP#: 605
WP#: 605
Abstract: Digital credit has expanded rapidly in Africa, mostly in the form of short-term, high-interest loans offered via mobile money. Loan terms are often opaque and consumer financial literacy is low, providing opportunities for predatory lending. A regression discontinuity analysis shows no negative effect of access to digital loans on financial well-being, but the majority of borrowers fail to repay on time and incur high late fees. We randomize exposure to a short phone-based financial literacy intervention. The intervention improved knowledge and marginally improved loan repayment but increased loan demand, increasing overall default risk.
Abstract: Digital credit has expanded rapidly in Africa, mostly in the form of short-term, high-interest loans offered via mobile money. Loan terms are often opaque and consumer financial literacy is low, providing opportunities for predatory lending. A regression discontinuity analysis shows no negative effect of access to digital loans on financial well-being, but the majority of borrowers fail to repay on time and incur high late fees. We randomize exposure to a short phone-based financial literacy intervention. The intervention improved knowledge and marginally improved loan repayment but increased loan demand, increasing overall default risk.
Date: Winter 2022
Date: Winter 2022
WP#: 604
WP#: 604
Abstract: We show using a theoretical framework that embeds a voting model in a general-equilibrium model of a rural economy with two interest groups defined by land ownership that the effects of democratization – a shift from control of public resources by the landed elite to a democratic regime with universal suffrage – on the portfolio of public goods is heterogeneous, depending the population landless. In accord with the model and empirical findings from micro data on the differing material interests of the two land classes, we find, based on 30-year panel data describing the democratization of Indian villages, that democratization in villages with a larger landless population share shifted resources away from public irrigation, secondary schools, and electrification and towards programs that increase employment. When the landed farmers have a large population share, public resources were shifted towards irrigation, secondary schools and electrification and away from employment programs.
Abstract: We show using a theoretical framework that embeds a voting model in a general-equilibrium model of a rural economy with two interest groups defined by land ownership that the effects of democratization – a shift from control of public resources by the landed elite to a democratic regime with universal suffrage – on the portfolio of public goods is heterogeneous, depending the population landless. In accord with the model and empirical findings from micro data on the differing material interests of the two land classes, we find, based on 30-year panel data describing the democratization of Indian villages, that democratization in villages with a larger landless population share shifted resources away from public irrigation, secondary schools, and electrification and towards programs that increase employment. When the landed farmers have a large population share, public resources were shifted towards irrigation, secondary schools and electrification and away from employment programs.
Date: Winter 2022
Date: Winter 2022
WP#: 603
WP#: 603
Abstract: In many high-income economies, the recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented declines in women’s employment. We examine how the forces that underlie this observation play out in developing countries, with a specific focus on Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. A force affecting high- and low-income countries alike are increased childcare needs during school closures; in Nigeria, mothers of school-age children experience the largest declines in employment during the pandemic, just as in high-income countries. A key difference is the role of the sectoral distribution of employment: whereas in high-income economies reduced employment in contact-intensive services had a large impact on women, this sector plays a minor role in low-income countries. Another difference is that women’s employment rebounded much more quickly in low-income countries. We conjecture that large income losses without offsetting government transfers drive up labor supply in low-income countries during the recovery.
Abstract: In many high-income economies, the recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented declines in women’s employment. We examine how the forces that underlie this observation play out in developing countries, with a specific focus on Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. A force affecting high- and low-income countries alike are increased childcare needs during school closures; in Nigeria, mothers of school-age children experience the largest declines in employment during the pandemic, just as in high-income countries. A key difference is the role of the sectoral distribution of employment: whereas in high-income economies reduced employment in contact-intensive services had a large impact on women, this sector plays a minor role in low-income countries. Another difference is that women’s employment rebounded much more quickly in low-income countries. We conjecture that large income losses without offsetting government transfers drive up labor supply in low-income countries during the recovery.
Date: Fall 2021
Date: Fall 2021
WP#: 602
WP#: 602
Abstract: Each year, around 500,000 children under 5 die from diarrhea, making it the third- leading cause of death in this age group. More than 80 percent of these deaths are attributable to unsafe drinking water. Drinking water can be made safe through dilute chlorine solution, but take-up of this technology has been low. Previous work has shown that free community-wide provision of dilute chlorine solution through “dispensers” – reservoirs of chlorine solution at water sources that make chlorination easy and free – increases take-up of chlorination. However, it has remained unclear whether this increase also translates into reduced mortality. Here we show that four years of community-wide provision of dilute chlorine solution in rural Kenya reduces all-cause under-5 mortality by 1.4 percentage points (95% CI: 0.3 pp, 2.5 pp), a 63% reduction relative to control. We estimate that at USD 25 per DALY averted, free provision of chlorine solution is twenty times more cost- effective than the WHO “highly cost-effective” threshold.
Abstract: Each year, around 500,000 children under 5 die from diarrhea, making it the third- leading cause of death in this age group. More than 80 percent of these deaths are attributable to unsafe drinking water. Drinking water can be made safe through dilute chlorine solution, but take-up of this technology has been low. Previous work has shown that free community-wide provision of dilute chlorine solution through “dispensers” – reservoirs of chlorine solution at water sources that make chlorination easy and free – increases take-up of chlorination. However, it has remained unclear whether this increase also translates into reduced mortality. Here we show that four years of community-wide provision of dilute chlorine solution in rural Kenya reduces all-cause under-5 mortality by 1.4 percentage points (95% CI: 0.3 pp, 2.5 pp), a 63% reduction relative to control. We estimate that at USD 25 per DALY averted, free provision of chlorine solution is twenty times more cost- effective than the WHO “highly cost-effective” threshold.
Date: Fall 2021
Date: Fall 2021
WP#: 601
WP#: 601
Abstract: In principle, firms in developing countries benefit from the fact that advanced technologies and products have already been developed in industrialized countries and can simply be adopted, a process often referred to as industrial upgrading. But for many firms this advantage remains elusive. What is getting in the way? This paper reviews recent firm-level empirical research on the determinants of upgrading in developing countries. The first part focuses on how to define and measure various dimensions of upgrading — learning, quality upgrading, technology adoption, and product innovation. The second part takes stock of recent micro-empirical evidence on the drivers of upgrading, classifying them as output-side drivers, input-side drivers, or drivers of know-how. The review concludes with some thoughts about promising directions for research in the area.
Abstract: In principle, firms in developing countries benefit from the fact that advanced technologies and products have already been developed in industrialized countries and can simply be adopted, a process often referred to as industrial upgrading. But for many firms this advantage remains elusive. What is getting in the way? This paper reviews recent firm-level empirical research on the determinants of upgrading in developing countries. The first part focuses on how to define and measure various dimensions of upgrading — learning, quality upgrading, technology adoption, and product innovation. The second part takes stock of recent micro-empirical evidence on the drivers of upgrading, classifying them as output-side drivers, input-side drivers, or drivers of know-how. The review concludes with some thoughts about promising directions for research in the area.
Date: Fall 2021
Date: Fall 2021
WP#: 600
WP#: 600
Abstract: There are two broad views as to why people stay poor. One emphasizes differences in fundamentals, such as ability, talent or motivation. The other, the poverty traps view, differences in opportunities which stem from access to wealth. To test between these two views, we exploit a large-scale, randomized asset transfer and an 11-year panel on 6000 households who begin in extreme poverty. The setting is rural Bangladesh and the asset is cows. The data supports the poverty traps view – we identify a threshold level of initial assets above which households accumulate assets, take on better occupations (from casual labor in agriculture or domestic services to running small livestock businesses) and grow out of poverty. The reverse happens for those below the threshold. Structural estimation of an occupational choice model reveals that almost all beneficiaries are misallocated in the work they do at baseline and that the gains arising from eliminating misallocation would far exceed the program costs. Our findings imply that large transfers which create better jobs for the poor are an effective means of getting people out of poverty traps and reducing global poverty.
Abstract: There are two broad views as to why people stay poor. One emphasizes differences in fundamentals, such as ability, talent or motivation. The other, the poverty traps view, differences in opportunities which stem from access to wealth. To test between these two views, we exploit a large-scale, randomized asset transfer and an 11-year panel on 6000 households who begin in extreme poverty. The setting is rural Bangladesh and the asset is cows. The data supports the poverty traps view – we identify a threshold level of initial assets above which households accumulate assets, take on better occupations (from casual labor in agriculture or domestic services to running small livestock businesses) and grow out of poverty. The reverse happens for those below the threshold. Structural estimation of an occupational choice model reveals that almost all beneficiaries are misallocated in the work they do at baseline and that the gains arising from eliminating misallocation would far exceed the program costs. Our findings imply that large transfers which create better jobs for the poor are an effective means of getting people out of poverty traps and reducing global poverty.
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